Stablecoin Market to Hit $2 Trillion in 2028 Even as Velocity Doubles: Standard Chartered

Stablecoin velocity has doubled over the past two years, with coins now changing hands an average of six times per month, according to a recent note from Standard Chartered. This surge is primarily attributed to new, additive use cases, particularly involving USDC on the Solana and Base networks.

Market Forecast Unchanged Amidst Velocity Gains

Despite the increased velocity, which theoretically suggests fewer coins are needed to support transaction volumes, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick maintains the bank's forecast of a $2 trillion stablecoin market cap by the end of 2028. Kendrick argues that the higher velocity reflects the emergence of new, additive use cases rather than a reduction in overall market demand.

Kendrick noted that these new use cases are currently additive to total stablecoin transactions and have not impacted the low-velocity savings use case prevalent in emerging markets. He added that the bank will monitor stablecoin velocity closely as a key input for future forecasts.

USDC Drives New Use Cases, Diverges from USDT

The Circle-issued stablecoin, USDC, has been the primary driver of new stablecoin use cases. Following the establishment of a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins last summer, USDC began displacing traditional banking rails. This trend accelerated in October 2025, with a sharp increase in USDC velocity on Solana and Base.

Kendrick attributes this second surge to early AI agent payments facilitated by Coinbase's open-source payment protocol, x402. While these volumes have since decreased, suggesting a potentially transient initial surge, the divergence in use cases between market leaders is notable. USDT, on the other hand, maintains stable velocity primarily driven by emerging market savings, while USDC is increasingly used for traditional finance (TradFi) replacement and new payment rails.